Expert picks and best bets: Will Cannonier keep rolling at UFC Fight Night? (2024)

Jared Cannonier looks to extend his winning streak to three in a row when he takes on fellow middleweight contender Nassourdine Imavov in the main event at UFC Fight Night at KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky, on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 5 p.m. on ESPN+).

Cannonier, a former middleweight title challenger, won his last two fights by decision over Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori, respectively. He is ranked No. 5 in ESPN's divisional rankings. Imavov enters the bout following a majority decision win over Roman Dolidze at UFC Fight Night in February.

Andreas Hale spoke to UFC strawweight Angela Hill to get her perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Middleweight: Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Angela Hill, UFC strawweight

How Cannonier wins: Cannonier wins by pressuring, cutting off the cage, and chopping the leg. If he's staying twitchy, using feints with his head movement, and drawing out Imavov's karate charges and push (front) kicks, he can also set up some well-timed takedowns. He's good at moving his head off the center line on his long straights, while Imavov tends to leave his head in the center and rely on distance management so when Imavov jumps in to score, Cannonier can land his own. Also, if Cannonier can pin Imavov against the fence like he did versus Vettori, it will be a long night for his opponent. We have seen it happen when Imavov faced Sean Strickland, where he didn't have an answer for the pressure. That, on top of Cannonier's clinch elbows, knees and punches, could suck the life out of him.

How Imavov wins: Imavov wins by feinting and pushing forward before he charges and circling hard when he steps outside of range. He has to use those push kicks to keep Cannonier away and try not to fade straight back after landing big punches. If he charges often, he can hurt Cannonier with his heavy boxing combos, especially those from awkward angles. He seems to have a more durable chin than Cannonier but looks uncomfortable when people are in his face. If he can keep distance, he can control the fight's pace like he's done against Buckley and many others. His lead push kick gave Chris Curtis some trouble, and we've also seen Cannonier switch stances and get lit up a bit. If Cannonier switches on him, that'd be the perfect time to attack with punches or kicks.

X factor: Whoever wrestles first wins. Both fighters use their wrestling to set up their striking and are pretty good on the ground. They tend to shy away from grappling if their opponent goes first, as seen in their Strickland fights, but they've also wrestled well against other opponents.

Prediction: Cannonier by decision.

Betting analysis

Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-155); lean Imavov to win (-125). Cannonier put on one of his most complete performances against Vettori in his last fight. Stylistically, this is an interesting fight. If Cannonier can use the volume striking he showed against Vettori, this fight will be close. However, Imavov, who is 11 years younger, has a high fight IQ that will keep him away from the power of Cannonier. I'm leaning toward Imavov on the money line here. He will put out volume and avoid getting hit, which will bank him early rounds. The other play is the over 4.5 rounds. Cannonier hasn't been finished since 2018 and that was at light heavyweight, while Imavov has never been finished in his UFC career.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the card

Bantamweight: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios

Over 2.5 rounds (-155). Turcios has endless cardio, a granite chin, and has never been submitted in his MMA career. He takes on Rosas, a rising prospect who is the youngest fighter on the UFC's roster. Rojas will have to test his cardio, hunt the takedown early and then hold Turcios there. But that is certainly easier said than done. Turcios doesn't have the best takedown defense, but his constant movement will keep him safe from submissions. Turcios needs to take advantage of opportunities when they are standing. Look for this fight to hit the over, as we will likely see offensive wrestling from Rojas, with Turcios constantly defending.

Middleweight: Julian Marquez vs. Zachary Reese

Marquez to win (-135). Reese was viciously knocked out via head slam in his UFC debut. He now returns to take on a bruiser in Marquez. As long as Marquez doesn't deplete his gas tank early, he can physically bully Reese anywhere the fight goes. Marquez carries a ton of power and can utilize his ground game if necessary.

Welterweight: Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano

Baeza to win (-190). Coming off back-to-back losses, Soriano may need a win to keep his spot on the UFC roster. In his last fight, despite being the betting favorite, he looked completely lost and was outclassed by Dustin Stoltzfus. Baeza is the better all-around fighter. He has crisper boxing and if the fight goes to the ground, he has the edge with his jiu-jitsu. I'm going with Baeza here, unless Soriano catches him with his power, Baeza will throw more volume while Soriano waits too long to land anything.